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Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

The economy appears to have remained trapped in recession in the fourth quarter of 2019 after contracting at the sharpest rate in a year in the third quarter. Activity in the all-important oil sector seemingly shrank again in Q4 as slumping domestic output likely outweighed higher global crude prices compared to Q3. Adding to the slew of negative news, a depreciating kwanza boded ill for household spending in the final quarter of 2019, thus curbing domestic demand growth. Turning to Q1 2020, available data continues to paint a gloomy picture. Both Angolan oil output and global crude prices fell in January, suggesting the oil sector increasingly dragged on overall economic activity. In other news, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the outlook for its B- credit rating to negative from stable, citing concerns over high government debt and the risk of larger twin deficits.

Angola Economic Growth

The 2020 growth outlook was chopped again in February against the backdrop of sliding global oil prices and deteriorating global demand for black gold. That said, the economy should emerge from recession this year, supported by ongoing economic reforms and IMF assistance, which should prop up domestic demand and accelerate diversification away from the oil sector. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 0.4% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 1.8%.

Angola Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)25.926.727.528.429.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,6244,3543,6554,3043,652
GDP (USD bn)146116101122107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.80.9-2.6-0.1-1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.5-1.9-19.53.09.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.7-2.9-4.5-6.32.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.857.175.769.389.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.111.814.44.120.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.514.341.926.318.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.310.332.431.720.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)102.9135.2165.8165.8307.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.0016.0018.0016.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)98.41120.1163.5165.8252.9
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-8.8-3.1-0.56.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.67.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)30.612.514.520.225.0
Exports (USD billion)59.233.227.634.640.8
Imports (USD billion)28.620.713.014.515.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.3-43.9-16.925.617.8
Imports (annual variation in %)8.5-27.6-37.010.99.2
International Reserves (USD)27.023.823.717.515.4
External Debt (% of GDP)24.731.244.235.544.0

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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