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Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy likely remained in the doldrums in the final quarter of 2019, after contracting in year-on-year terms in the third quarter. Economic activity continued to shrivel in October-November, while consumer confidence was stuck in pessimistic terrain and export growth cooled in the fourth quarter. On a somewhat more positive note, industrial production expanded for the first time in 20 months in December. Meanwhile, in early February, the Senate ratified the lower house’s decision to grant the government the power to restructure around USD 100 billion of the country’s foreign-denominated sovereign debt. Of this, around USD 44 billion is owed to the IMF, with whom the government held talks last week. This was a first step in the negotiation process with creditors, whose agreement is aimed for by 31 March.

Argentina Economic Growth

The economy will remain mired in recession this year, although the pace of contraction is expected to ease. Downbeat investor confidence, runaway inflation and sky-high interest rates will weigh on domestic demand, while the new levies will hit export growth. Debt renegotiations and interventionist policies further cloud the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus sees the economy contracting 1.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, before rebounding 1.7% in 2021.

Argentina Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)42.743.143.644.144.6
GDP per capita (USD)13,13315,11012,77814,38612,123
GDP (USD bn)560652557634540
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.52.7-2.12.7-2.5
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-3.94.2-1.66.0-3.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-4.43.7-0.84.0-2.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.83.5-5.812.2-5.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.50.1-4.52.5-4.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)37.327.326.020.828.5
Unemployment Rate7.37.18.48.49.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-5.1-5.8-5.9-5.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.752.653.156.686.0
Money (annual variation in %)28.928.230.426.022.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)38.026.941.024.847.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)38.026.741.227.7-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.00.0-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.3827.2519.8823.2549.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)59.136.144.977.70.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.4612.9415.8618.6037.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.129.2714.7716.5628.08
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-2.7-2.7-4.9-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.2-17.6-15.1-31.2-27.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.7-3.42.1-8.3-3.7
Exports (USD billion)68.456.857.958.661.8
Imports (USD billion)65.760.255.966.965.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.9-17.02.01.35.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.7-8.4-7.219.8-2.2
International Reserves (USD)31.425.639.355.165.8
External Debt (% of GDP)28.325.732.637.051.4

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Argentina Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate59.880.45 %Dec 30

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