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Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

March 10, 2020

Growth gathered momentum at the start of 2020, after easing in the final quarter of last year amid a loss of dynamism in the oil and gas sector. Industrial output gained pace in January, buttressed by a strong mining sector which saw gas production surge. Moreover, a robust recovery in capital spending in the same month, after it had contracted in 2019, and solid agricultural production also bode well for the non-oil economy. On the demand front, healthy retail sales growth in January suggests that private consumption is holding up. Less encouragingly, however, merchandise exports plummeted at the outset of the year, which, coupled with plunging global oil prices through March, hints that the external sector could drag on activity in Q1.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shift to a higher gear this year on the back of stronger domestic demand. Rising investment activity, supported by cheaper credit and improving sentiment, and faster consumer spending growth amid sustained wage increases should drive the expansion. Downward trending oil and gas prices and subdued global growth pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2020, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.7%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)9.59.69.79.89.9
GDP per capita (USD)7,9265,5253,9014,1614,722
GDP (USD bn)75.153.037.940.946.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.81.1-3.10.21.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.72.4-0.5-3.41.5
Unemployment Rate4.95.05.05.05.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.435.050.753.248.4
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)6.1-50.233.00.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.27.615.77.91.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.44.012.412.92.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.0015.0015.009.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.781.031.601.721.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.791.031.601.731.70
Current Account (% of GDP)13.9-0.4-3.64.112.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)10.4-0.2-1.41.76.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)18.95.84.26.19.8
Exports (USD billion)28.315.613.215.220.8
Imports (USD billion)9.39.89.09.011.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.1-44.8-15.214.737.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.34.7-7.90.421.2
International Reserves (USD)15.57.97.16.76.7
External Debt (% of GDP)16.425.439.037.834.5

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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