Brazil Economic Outlook
February 18, 2020Momentum appeared to wane in the final quarter of last year after growth accelerated in the third quarter. Economic activity fell in December, while industrial output also declined in the same month. Moreover, retail sales in Q4 were disappointing, boding ill for private consumption in the quarter. Looking at the first quarter of 2020, survey data revealed confidence was mixed at the outset of the year: In January, consumers were more downbeat, although businesses were more optimistic. Meanwhile, merchandise exports plunged to an over four-year low in January on a sharp contraction in manufactured goods. The recent coronavirus outbreak could have a pronounced effect on external demand in Q1, particularly as commodity markets have been hard hit and China is a major trading partner for Brazil. Nevertheless, domestic demand is likely keeping growth afloat, thanks in part to a low interest-rate environment.
Brazil Economic GrowthThe outlook for 2020 is favorable. Domestic demand should power the expansion, driven by improving economic sentiment and looser monetary policy. Conversely, fiscal tightening will dampen growth, while the external sector will likely remain lackluster. Delayed reform efforts ahead of local elections in October represents a risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 2.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.5%.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Brazil Economic News
March 16, 2020
bet360备用网址The Brazilian real continued to plunge in March, topping the list as the worst-performing currency so far this year.
March 11, 2020
bet360备用网址Consumer prices increased 0.25% over the previous month in February, up from January’s 0.21% increase.
March 10, 2020
Industrial production rose 0.9% on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis in January, contrasting December’s revised 0.8% decline (previously reported: -0.7% month-on-month).
March 4, 2020
Economic growth moderated to 0.5% in Q4 from 0.6% in Q3, matching market expectations.
March 2, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, rose to 52.3 in February from 51.0 in January.