Canada Economic Forecast
March 3, 2020The economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, restrained by a plethora of temporary setbacks. On the domestic front, fixed investment contracted at the sharpest pace in one year after surging in Q3, while the external sector further dragged on growth as exports contracted at the steepest pace since Q3 2017. On a brighter note, private consumption growth was stable in Q4, likely supported by upbeat wage growth and a tight labor market. Shifting to the first quarter of the year, economic activity will likely rebound due to a low base effect in Q4, but should remain soft as protests over the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline in B.C. led to the temporary shutdown of CN Rail’s operations across large parts of the country. Nevertheless, housing market data has been upbeat, while the unemployment rate ticked down in January and the manufacturing PMI rose in the same month—all of which bode well for domestic demand.
Canada Economic GrowthThe economy is seen expanding at a steady pace this year, with resilient private consumption and a stabilization in the energy sector supporting economic activity. Volatility in commodity prices, slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. and elevated household debt pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.
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Canada Economic News
Canada: Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points for second time in March amid coronavirus anxiety
March 13, 2020
bet360备用网址On 13 March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held an unscheduled meeting and cut its target for the overnight rate from 1.25% to 0.75%, following its previous 50 basis-point cut on 4 March.
March 4, 2020
bet360备用网址On 4 March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its target for the overnight rate from 1.75% to 1.25%, following the U.S. Fed’s unplanned meeting on 3 March where Governor Powell lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. The Bank’s decision to cut its key policy interest rate was driven by fears related to the coronavirus outbreak.
March 2, 2020
In February, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 51.8 from 50.6 in January.
February 28, 2020
Economic activity softened in the final quarter of last year, with seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) growth decelerating from Q3’s 1.1% expansion (previously reported: +1.3% SAAR) to 0.3% in Q4—meeting both market expectations and those of the Bank of Canada.
February 20, 2020
bet360备用网址House prices increased 0.1% on a month-on-month non-seasonally-adjusted basis in January, according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, slightly weaker than December’s 0.2% uptick.