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Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

According to preliminary GDP data, economic growth moderated marginally in the fourth quarter of 2019 amid somewhat softer domestic demand dynamics, after having expanded at the fastest pace in over four years in Q3. That said, the economy gained momentum when looking at 2019 as a whole: Low interest rates, higher disposable incomes and higher remittance inflows fueled household consumption, while upbeat business confidence and VAT deductions on capital good purchases supported fixed investment. In other news, on 3 February the government updated its Financing Plan for 2020. The plan maintains a narrower fiscal deficit target of 2.2% of GDP, with tax revenue expected to remain unchanged from 2019 at 14.3% of GDP, despite lower corporate taxes owing to the recently approved tax reform.

Colombia Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain healthy this year, underpinned by fixed investment growth—amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal exemptions—and still-solid private consumption growth. Key risks to the outlook include a fairly elevated external debt burden, as well as social unrest and political tensions, which could hurt consumer and investor confidence. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 3.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% again in 2021.

Colombia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)47.748.248.749.349.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9926,0755,8086,3226,689
GDP (USD bn)381293283312333
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.73.02.11.42.5
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)6.22.41.21.23.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.63.41.62.44.0
Investment (annual variation in %)9.92.8-2.91.91.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.52.04.1-0.53.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.46.42.0-0.15.4
Unemployment Rate9.18.99.29.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.142.943.844.948.2
Money (annual variation in %)9.112.56.97.15.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.76.85.74.13.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.95.07.54.33.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.05.52.23.32.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.505.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.0-26.518.213.6-2.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,3893,1753,0022,9853,248
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0032,7493,0522,9522,958
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-19.8-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1
Exports (USD billion)56.938.634.139.844.4
Imports (USD billion)61.552.143.244.249.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.6-32.2-11.716.811.7
Imports (annual variation in %)7.8-15.4-16.92.312.1
International Reserves (USD)47.346.746.747.648.4
External Debt (% of GDP)26.838.242.540.039.6

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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