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Costa Rica Economic Forecast

Costa Rica Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 18, 2020

The economy appeared to gain traction in the fourth quarter, after growth accelerated in Q3. Cyclically-adjusted economic activity growth hit a near one-and-a-half-year high in December, and the growth rate in Q4 comfortably surpassed that of Q3. Stronger government spending due to a low base effect likely powered the acceleration in the fourth quarter. Rising consumer confidence in Q4 will have supported private consumption; however, a simultaneous increase in the unemployment rate and a sharp decrease in bank lending will have had the opposite effect. The drop in bank lending will have also weighed on fixed investment, and came despite several interest rate cuts by the Central Bank in 2019. In other news, Moody’s downgraded Costa Rica’s credit rating to B2 from B1 on 10 February, due to a poor fiscal profile, and changed the outlook to stable from negative.

Costa Rica Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate this year, notably thanks to a rebound in fixed investment, aided by interest rate cuts. However, downbeat business and consumer confidence, a slowdown in the U.S. and constrained government spending will all weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 2.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2021.

Costa Rica Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)4.84.94.95.05.0
GDP per capita (USD)10,57411,29211,65911,76912,054
GDP (USD bn)50.754.857.258.460.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.64.23.92.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.94.23.63.51.7
Investment (annual variation in %)3.33.04.8-2.53.0
Unemployment Rate9.79.69.59.312.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.6-5.7-5.2-6.1-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.541.045.148.453.2
Money (annual variation in %)11.76.12.1-1.0-0.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.1-0.80.82.62.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.50.80.01.62.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.205.954.455.956.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)540.8537.3553.2571.4604.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)537.2534.6544.0567.9577.2
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.8-3.5-2.2-3.4-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-1.9-1.3-2.0-2.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-5.5-5.3-5.3-5.3
Exports (USD billion)9.19.29.910.611.3
Imports (USD billion)15.614.715.215.916.6
Exports (annual variation in %)5.60.77.96.96.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.1-5.23.34.44.2
International Reserves (USD)7.27.87.67.17.5
External Debt (% of GDP)42.643.144.746.548.1

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Costa Rica Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate571.0-0.57 %Jan 01

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