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Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 10, 2020

The economy lost some traction in the fourth quarter of last year, after growth accelerated in the third quarter. A lackluster industrial sector, coupled with weakness in the EU, translated into strong destocking and caused the external sector to drag on the economy in Q4. On the other hand, robust household spending on the back of healthy wage growth and subdued inflation cushioned the slowdown. Turning to the first quarter of 2020, momentum seems to have waned: Business and consumer confidence weakened in February amid the coronavirus outbreak, which is set to hit the important tourism sector. Meanwhile, in mid-February, the IMF concluded its Article IV consultation with the country. The Fund emphasized the improved fiscal situation, although warned the government against fiscal slippage and encouraged it to redirect budget funds to investment.

Croatia Economic Growth

Growth is set to slow this year, as a weak Eurozone and the impact of Covid-19 will hit external demand and restrain investment activity. Nonetheless, the economy should continue to expand at a healthy pace, supported by solid consumer spending fueled by income tax cuts and sustained wage and employment growth. The coronavirus epidemic clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2021.

Croatia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)4.24.24.24.14.1
GDP per capita (EUR)10,25510,47511,03911,91212,591
GDP (EUR bn)43.544.046.149.151.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.12.43.53.12.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.60.23.13.23.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.83.86.55.14.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.22.55.01.9-1.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.42.44.04.73.8
Unemployment Rate19.417.614.712.29.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-3.3-1.10.80.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.084.481.078.074.8
Money (annual variation in %)9.611.418.219.120.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.5-0.60.21.20.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.2-0.3-0.61.31.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.003.003.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-3.1-2.818.1-7.6-5.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.667.647.557.437.41
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.637.617.537.467.42
Current Account (% of GDP)1.83.22.24.11.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.91.51.01.71.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.5-7.1-7.6-8.4-9.6
Exports (EUR billion)9.410.210.511.712.2
Imports (EUR billion)16.017.318.120.221.9
Exports (annual variation in %)5.88.03.111.44.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.87.74.711.38.5
International Reserves (EUR)12.713.713.515.717.4
External Debt (% of GDP)10710997.089.883.0

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Croatia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.670.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate6.64-0.54 %Jan 01

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