Egypt Economic Outlook
bet360备用网址March 10, 2020The economy likely kept steady momentum in the second quarter of FY 2020, which ran from October to December, after slowing marginally in the first. Higher government spending, particularly on investment and public wages, likely underpinned activity. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.8% in Q1, potentially dampening private consumption. On the external front, merchandise export growth remained subdued for the second consecutive quarter in Q2, while imports dropped, contrasting an increase in the previous quarter. Turning to the third quarter, growth likely remains solid. However, the non-oil private sector has lost some steam, with the PMI averaging lower in January–February than in Q2 and the sector’s staff levels dropping at the fastest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years in February. In addition, rising cases of coronavirus both within Egypt and abroad are a concern, particularly due to the potential impact on the tourism sector.
Egypt Economic GrowthGrowth should stabilize in FY 2020, after accelerating for the second year running in FY 2019. Particularly, higher government spending, improved ease of doing business and lower interest rates should support activity. However, the coronavirus outbreak, lingering global trade tensions and domestic security scares will weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.5% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% again in FY 2021.
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|Bond Yield||13.70||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||16.04||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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Egypt Economic News
March 10, 2020
Consumer prices were unchanged in February compared to the previous month, after rising 0.7% in January.
March 3, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, increased to 47.1 in February from 46.0 in January, indicating a less severe deterioration in business conditions—readings above 50 indicate an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease.
February 20, 2020
At its monetary policy meeting on 20 February, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left all interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.
February 15, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.7% in January from the previous month due to higher food and beverage prices, contrasting the 0.2% month-on-month decrease in December, according to a monthly inflation note released on 15 February.
February 5, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, dropped to 46.0 in January from 48.2 in December, indicating a worse deterioration in business conditions in the sector over the previous month and the lowest reading in over two and a half years. Contributing to the downturn in January was the fastest contraction in output among Egyptian businesses in three years, which was largely due to a sharp fall in new orders, partly due to softer export demand for the fourth consecutive month.