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Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Economic activity gained strength in the 2018–2019 fiscal year, which ended in July 2019, spurred by a strong services sector and soaring industrial production. Available data for FY Q1 2019–2020 suggests resilience: Exports growth was sustained in the quarter, while public investment spending jumped by more than one quarter, although the fiscal deficit widened in the period. On the political front, Parliament passed a new investment law at the end of January which facilitates foreign investors with access to several sectors of the economy, thus fostering competitiveness, while keeping access to the financial sector reserved to domestic investors. Moreover, in mid-February, the cabinet approved a supplementary budget of over USD 870 billion to fund economic reforms, while the U.S. government committed to financially support the ongoing reform process. Meanwhile, the electoral board established parliamentary elections will take place on 29 August.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate this year, although it will remain healthy on the back of robust household spending, sustained public infrastructure investment and upbeat FDI amid ongoing economic liberalization efforts. However, downside risks remain considerable, stemming from the ongoing locust swarm, sizable twin deficits and FX shortages. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 7.8% in FY 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2020.

Ethiopia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)88.389.891.292.794.1
GDP per capita (USD)7318288979101,021
GDP (USD bn)64.674.381.884.496.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.48.010.17.79.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.3-3.3-3.0-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.555.858.661.059.1
Money (annual variation in %)29.121.725.129.822.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.110.06.716.510.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.410.17.310.913.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.3321.2622.4027.5828.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)19.7220.7621.9024.0727.63
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.0-10.8-8.2-7.0-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.1-8.0-6.7-5.9-5.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.0-13.8-13.6-12.9-12.6
Exports (USD billion)3.42.92.83.02.7
Imports (USD billion)15.416.716.415.915.3
Exports (annual variation in %)13.1-13.4-3.67.6-10.7
Imports (annual variation in %)27.28.8-1.8-3.2-3.6
International Reserves (USD)3.53.83.03.04.0
External Debt (% of GDP)26.228.329.131.629.2

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Ethiopia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate31.980.01 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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