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Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 3, 2020

A detailed reading of national accounts data confirmed that the economy flatlined in the final quarter of last year, ensuring growth fell to a six-year low in 2019. Private consumption stagnated in the quarter despite a still-tight labor market and robust wage growth, while the external sector weighed on the economy as exports fell and imports rose robustly. Turning to this year, the narrative of a two-speed economy is likely to continue. Business conditions in the services sector continued to improve robustly through February; the manufacturing sector, however, remained stuck in contraction, suggesting industrial production is likely to have continued to fall in the first two months of the year. Additionally, business confidence remained in pessimistic territory in the same period as views on the outlook and current situation remain depressed. More positively, consumer sentiment remains elevated in Q1.

Germany Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain tepid this year, despite a marginal acceleration. Robust domestic demand is seen spurring the economy amid a tight labor market, low inflation and cheap credit. However, the balance of risk remains tilted to the downside, owing to the U.S.-China trade spat, Brexit, the coronavirus outbreak and possible intensification of EU-U.S. trade tensions. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 0.7% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.2% in 2021.

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Germany Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.190.41 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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