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Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 3, 2020

Economic activity seemingly lost further stride in the final stretch of 2019, after slowing in the third quarter on shrinking domestic demand. Industrial output plunged in Q4 on an ailing electricity supply sector, suffering the sharpest contraction in six years. Similarly, goods exports fell in the quarter amid weak EU demand, which, coupled with a marked slowdown in tourism revenues in the same period, suggests the external sector may have restrained growth. A sizeable drop in merchandise imports also hints at subdued domestic demand at year-end. Turning to 2020, upbeat employment and production growth lifted the manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in January, boding well for the goods-producing sector. In other news, the country’s bonds reached another milestone in mid-February, with 10-year yields falling below 1.00% for the first time despite its junk-rated debt as investors scramble for positive yield in the Eurozone government bond market.

Greece Economic Growth

The gradual economic recovery is poised to continue this year on quickening domestic demand. The sustained improvement in the labor market should bolster private consumption, while strengthening confidence and tax breaks should stimulate capital spending. Softening Eurozone demand and competition from other tourist destinations in the Mediterranean cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2021.

Greece Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)10.910.910.810.810.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,35016,32516,36616,73717,197
GDP (EUR bn)179177176180185
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.8-0.5-0.31.41.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.0-1.40.51.60.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.8-0.30.10.91.0
Investment (annual variation in %)-4.60.64.69.4-12.0
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.72.8-1.96.98.7
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.70.41.27.43.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.92.32.63.91.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.5-0.61.31.4
Unemployment Rate26.525.023.521.519.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-5.60.50.71.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)179176179176181
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-2.50.40.31.00.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.4-1.10.01.10.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.2-7.2-5.75.34.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-28.9-23.62.024.7-23.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.9-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-22.3-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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