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Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy has taken a beating in recent months, hit by political uncertainty, civil unrest and elevated inflation, which has in turn led to hefty layoffs, an interruption in vital remittance inflows and a collapse in domestic demand. Exacerbating matters, drought late last year dampened food production, increasing the number of people at risk of starvation. On the political front, President Jovenel Moise continues to govern by decree after Parliament’s mandate expired in mid-January, which could inflame social tensions. In its recent Article IV consultation, the IMF urged the restoration of political and macroeconomic stability, a shift in spending towards social programs and investment, and the preparation of a FY 2020 budget.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy is likely to shrink this year, dragged on by weak business sentiment and political uncertainty. Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters and a possible intensification of social unrest, while the potential restoration of political stability poses an upside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee an economic contraction of 0.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before growing 0.8% in 2021.

Haiti Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)10.610.710.811.011.1
GDP per capita (USD)819826740779882
GDP (USD bn)8.78.88.08.69.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.81.21.51.21.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.92.31.22.71.2
Investment (annual variation in %)2.13.61.10.92.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.4-2.50.00.2-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)26.330.333.731.033.3
Money (annual variation in %)8.914.65.510.723.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.412.514.313.315.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.69.013.814.713.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)10.2512.5013.3311.5012.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.7556.5866.4662.0176.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)45.2250.2462.5463.9267.05
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.2-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.01.1
Imports (USD billion)3.73.43.23.64.5
Exports (annual variation in %)5.06.6-2.8-0.38.7
Imports (annual variation in %)9.8-5.9-7.713.723.9
International Reserves (USD)2.01.92.12.42.4
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.727.025.422.6

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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