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Hungary Economic Forecast

Hungary Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

The economy lost steam in the fourth quarter of last year, expanding at the weakest pace since Q3 2017 due to a faltering external sector. Particularly, export growth slowed markedly on weaker manufacturing output amid challenging demand conditions in the EU. Robust domestic demand, however, cushioned the overall moderation as quickening private consumption—propped up by low unemployment and buoyant wage growth—outweighed a significant loss of momentum in fixed investment. Turning to this year, available data is mixed. In January, retail sales jumped despite consumers turning more pessimistic, hinting that household spending continues to fare strongly. On the other hand, business confidence has deteriorated since November and fell to its lowest point in over six years in February, boding ill for capital outlays in the quarter.

Hungary Economic Growth

GDP growth is forecast to ease this year. Investment is seen rising at a more moderate pace amid lower absorption of structural funds, while slowing real wage gains will restrain private consumption growth. The coronavirus impact on global supply chains and thus on the all-important automotive sector poses a key risk to the outlook, as do labor shortages owing to poor demographics. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2021.

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Hungary Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.080.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate295.1-0.68 %Jan 01

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