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India Economic Forecast

India Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

Economic growth likely accelerated in the third quarter of FY 2019, which ran from October to December, after slowing to a six-and-a-half-year low in the second quarter. Business confidence regarding both current and future operating conditions improved in Q3. Moreover, consumers grew more confident about future economic conditions in the same quarter, although confidence about current conditions waned. Nevertheless, economic growth was likely modest in Q3, as industrial production dropped slightly faster than in Q2, bank lending growth slowed and the private-sector PMI reading was broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, in politics, the government unveiled its FY 2020 budget on 1 February, which projects a small narrowing of the estimated fiscal deficit in FY 2019. The budget will likely have a positive but minimal effect on growth.

India Economic Growth

The economy should grow at a faster pace in FY 2020, which starts in April, due to accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. However, weaker-than-expected growth in China due to the coronavirus outbreak is a key short-term risk for exports, while high levels of bad debt in India’s banking sector could constrain lending and, thus, consumption and fixed investment growth. Our panelists project GDP growth of 5.9% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in FY 2021.

India Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)1,2661,2831,3001,3171,334
GDP per capita (USD)1,6141,6331,7632,0172,027
GDP (USD bn)2,0442,0962,2912,6572,704
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.48.08.37.06.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.47.98.17.07.2
Investment (annual variation in %)2.66.58.57.29.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.13.34.64.43.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.868.867.767.868.1
Money (annual variation in %)10.711.56.721.814.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.34.83.94.32.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.04.94.53.63.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.3-3.61.82.94.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.506.756.256.006.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.9-9.416.911.317.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)62.2966.2564.8665.1169.19
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)61.1465.4267.0464.4669.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.4-1.1-0.7-1.8-2.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.6-22.1-15.2-48.7-57.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-137.5-117.3-108.9-158.6-182.1
Exports (USD billion)311262275305330
Imports (USD billion)448379384463512
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-15.65.110.68.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.7-15.31.320.510.6
International Reserves (USD)341356373421414
External Debt (% of GDP)23.223.120.619.920.1

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India Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.50-0.04 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate71.23-0.09 %Jan 01

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