India Economic Outlook
bet360备用网址February 25, 2020Economic growth likely accelerated in the third quarter of FY 2019, which ran from October to December, after slowing to a six-and-a-half-year low in the second quarter. Business confidence regarding both current and future operating conditions improved in Q3. Moreover, consumers grew more confident about future economic conditions in the same quarter, although confidence about current conditions waned. Nevertheless, economic growth was likely modest in Q3, as industrial production dropped slightly faster than in Q2, bank lending growth slowed and the private-sector PMI reading was broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, in politics, the government unveiled its FY 2020 budget on 1 February, which projects a small narrowing of the estimated fiscal deficit in FY 2019. The budget will likely have a positive but minimal effect on growth.
India Economic GrowthThe economy should grow at a faster pace in FY 2020, which starts in April, due to accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. However, weaker-than-expected growth in China due to the coronavirus outbreak is a key short-term risk for exports, while high levels of bad debt in India’s banking sector could constrain lending and, thus, consumption and fixed investment growth. Our panelists project GDP growth of 5.9% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in FY 2021.
India Economy Data
bet360备用网址5 years of India economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.50||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||71.23||-0.09 %||Jan 01|
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India Economic News
March 4, 2020
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit climbed to 57.6 in February from 56.3 in January, representing the highest reading in eight years.
February 28, 2020
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2019, which ran from October to December, the economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year, down from the revised growth of 5.1% in July–September (previously reported: +4.5% year-on-year) but matching market analysts’ expectations.
February 14, 2020
Consumer prices dropped 0.13% in January compared to the previous month, contrasting the 1.21% increase in December.
February 14, 2020
Merchandise exports decreased 1.7% in January from the same month a year earlier, similar to the 1.8% decrease in December and amounting to a total value of USD 26.0 billion.
February 12, 2020
bet360备用网址Industrial production decreased 0.3% in December compared to the same month a year earlier, contrasting the 1.8% increase in November. Industrial output fell due to declines in the manufacturing and electricity generation sectors in December; on the other hand, output rose in the mining sector.