Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

Growth clocked 5.0% again in the final quarter of 2019. While the domestic economy was weak, as ebbing government consumption and fixed investment outweighed upbeat private consumption, the external sector continued to support the economy due to a further sharp fall in imports, amid the government’s import substitution policies. Meanwhile, early signs in 2020 are downbeat: In January, the manufacturing PMI continued to signal worsening operating conditions, exports fell and consumer confidence declined amid rising fears over the coronavirus outbreak. Moreover, the virus is likely now affecting the external sector via reduced Chinese demand. In politics, the government introduced the omnibus bill—which aims to cut red tape and attract more foreign investment—to Parliament in mid-February. However, certain elements of the bill, such as changes to labor laws, could generate opposition.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Growth is seen broadly stable this year. Fixed investment growth should accelerate on stronger government infrastructure spending, although this will be offset by a recovery in imports and the coronavirus weighing on the external sector. A potential worsening of the viral outbreak poses a downside risk, while the passage of the omnibus bill is an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 5.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% in 2021.

Indonesia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)252256258261264
GDP per capita (USD)3,5323,3683,6073,8853,946
GDP (USD bn)8918619321,0151,042
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)14.513.311.02.93.7
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-2.5-2.6-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.727.028.029.430.1
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.757.504.754.256.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)22.3-12.115.320.0-2.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,38513,78813,47313,56814,380
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)11,86613,39213,30213,38314,233
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-2.0-1.8-1.6-2.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.5-17.5-17.0-16.2-30.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-
Exports (USD billion)176150145169180
Imports (USD billion)178143136157189
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.6-14.6-3.416.36.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.5-19.9-4.915.720.2
International Reserves (USD)112106116130121
External Debt (% of GDP)32.936.134.334.736.0

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Indonesia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.10-0.05 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate13,8830.05 %Jan 01

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