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Japan Economic Forecast

Japan Economic Outlook

March 3, 2020

The economy contracted at the fastest pace in five-and-a-half years in the fourth quarter of last year, as private consumption slumped following the consumption tax increase in October and the devastation wreaked by Typhoon Hagibis in the same month. Fixed investment also contracted sharply, as business confidence among large manufacturers dropped to a near seven-year low. Exports of goods and services dropped for the second consecutive quarter in Q4, although at a slower pace than in Q3. Turning to this year, prospects of an economic rebound appear to be waning, as the coronavirus outbreak in China has spread across the East Asia region and taken root in Japan, with hundreds of cases now reported nationally. The private sector PMI tumbled in February, indicating the fastest decline in activity in nearly six years, as service providers reported the spread of the virus was hampering tourism.

Japan Economic Growth

Economic growth will slow this year as the sales tax hike constrains private consumption and the coronavirus outbreak hampers activity. That said, the economy should benefit from ultra-low interest rates and low unemployment. A downside risk is the global coronavirus outbreak becoming a global pandemic, forcing the cancellation of the 2020 Summer Olympics. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 0.3% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.8% in 2021.

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Japan Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.02-4.41 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate108.7-0.35 %Jan 01

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Japan Economic News

  • Japan: Economy contracts faster than initially estimated in Q4

    March 9, 2020

    bet360备用网址The economy contracted 7.1% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to a second release of GDP data.

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  • Japan: Consumer confidence slips in February

    March 3, 2020

    bet360备用网址The consumer confidence index fell to 38.4 in February from 39.1 in January.

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  • Japan: Industrial production increases in January

    February 28, 2020

    bet360备用网址Industrial production increased 0.8% in January on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis, down from the revised 1.2% increase in December (previously reported: +1.3% month-on-month). January’s reading was supported by increased production of motor vehicles and transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles), but weighed on by lower output of production machinery, and general-purpose and business-orientated machinery. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 2.5% in January, after decreasing a revised 3.1% in December (previously reported: -3.0% year-on-year).

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  • Japan: Composite PMI slumps in February, raising chances of technical recession in Q1

    February 21, 2020

    bet360备用网址The Jibun Bank composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slumped to 47.0 in February from a revised 50.1 in January (previously reported: 51.1), according to a flash reading released on 21 February, suggesting private sector activity declined from the previous month at the fastest pace in nearly six years. The services PMI dropped to 46.7 in February from a revised 51.0 in January (previously reported: 52.1).

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  • Japan: Core inflation ticks up in January

    February 21, 2020

    The core consumer price index increased 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in January, matching December’s result.

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