Japan Economic Outlook
March 3, 2020The economy contracted at the fastest pace in five-and-a-half years in the fourth quarter of last year, as private consumption slumped following the consumption tax increase in October and the devastation wreaked by Typhoon Hagibis in the same month. Fixed investment also contracted sharply, as business confidence among large manufacturers dropped to a near seven-year low. Exports of goods and services dropped for the second consecutive quarter in Q4, although at a slower pace than in Q3. Turning to this year, prospects of an economic rebound appear to be waning, as the coronavirus outbreak in China has spread across the East Asia region and taken root in Japan, with hundreds of cases now reported nationally. The private sector PMI tumbled in February, indicating the fastest decline in activity in nearly six years, as service providers reported the spread of the virus was hampering tourism.
Japan Economic GrowthEconomic growth will slow this year as the sales tax hike constrains private consumption and the coronavirus outbreak hampers activity. That said, the economy should benefit from ultra-low interest rates and low unemployment. A downside risk is the global coronavirus outbreak becoming a global pandemic, forcing the cancellation of the 2020 Summer Olympics. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 0.3% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.8% in 2021.
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|Bond Yield||-0.02||-4.41 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||108.7||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
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Japan Economic News
March 9, 2020
bet360备用网址The economy contracted 7.1% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to a second release of GDP data.
March 3, 2020
bet360备用网址The consumer confidence index fell to 38.4 in February from 39.1 in January.
February 28, 2020
bet360备用网址Industrial production increased 0.8% in January on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis, down from the revised 1.2% increase in December (previously reported: +1.3% month-on-month). January’s reading was supported by increased production of motor vehicles and transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles), but weighed on by lower output of production machinery, and general-purpose and business-orientated machinery. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 2.5% in January, after decreasing a revised 3.1% in December (previously reported: -3.0% year-on-year).
February 21, 2020
bet360备用网址The Jibun Bank composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slumped to 47.0 in February from a revised 50.1 in January (previously reported: 51.1), according to a flash reading released on 21 February, suggesting private sector activity declined from the previous month at the fastest pace in nearly six years. The services PMI dropped to 46.7 in February from a revised 51.0 in January (previously reported: 52.1).
February 21, 2020
The core consumer price index increased 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in January, matching December’s result.