Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 18, 2020

Preliminary figures revealed that GDP declined yet again on annual basis in the final quarter of 2019—leading to the first full-year economic slump since the 2009 crisis. Industrial-sector output contracted for the fifth quarter running, primarily due to the hammered construction and mining sectors, dragging down overall activity. Moreover, agricultural production cooled in the quarter and although activity in the services sector quickened, the increase was underwhelming, which alludes to softer-than-expected growth in household spending. Turning to 2020, available data suggests a gradually improving scenario. The manufacturing PMI rose in January, albeit remained in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, the services PMI returned to growth for the first time in nine months, which, coupled with strengthening consumer confidence, bodes well for consumption gaining traction.

Mexico Economic Growth

The economy is expected to recover this year on the back of stronger consumer spending, buttressed by rising real wages and upbeat remittances. Increased effectiveness in executing public spending and investment should also support growth. Depressed business confidence, an uncertain global trade environment and the finances of debt-laden Pemex weigh on the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 0.9% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2021.

Mexico Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)120121122124125
GDP per capita (USD)10,9649,6548,8049,3799,791
GDP (USD bn)1,3121,1681,0771,1591,221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate3.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-2.5-1.1-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)41.345.449.446.946.9
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.91.310.35.26.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.0-
Exchange Rate (vs USD)14.7517.1820.7319.6519.65
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13.3115.8818.6918.9119.23
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.6-2.2-1.7-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-25.1-30.7-24.0-20.2-22.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-14.7-13.1-11.0-13.6
Exports (USD billion)397381374409451
Imports (USD billion)400395387420464
Exports (annual variation in %)4.4-4.1-1.79.510.1
Imports (annual variation in %)4.9-1.2-2.18.610.4
International Reserves (USD)193177177173175
External Debt (% of GDP)32.535.638.337.736.6

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Mexico Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.87-0.24 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate18.93-0.29 %Jan 01

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