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Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

Growth appeared to gather pace somewhat in the final quarter of 2019, after quickening activity in both the agricultural and industrial sectors propped up a modest expansion in the third quarter. Both the Central Bank’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs trended higher in Q4 than in Q3, which, coupled with upbeat credit growth in October–November, suggest improved dynamics. Available data, however, indicates that momentum waned at the outset of 2020. The private sector PMI slipped to a six-month low in January on cooling output and new orders growth. Moreover, though secondary sources showed that oil production held relatively stable in January from Q4 levels, plunging global crude prices may have cut into export revenues. Meanwhile, at the conclusion of its Article IV visit on 17 February, the IMF slashed the country’s 2020 growth forecast, noting that the economic recovery remains fragile amid a challenging outlook.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Although economic activity is seen picking up this year, growth is poised to remain only modest. Key risks to the outlook include high inflation; lingering trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak dampening exports, particularly of oil; elevated unemployment; and the slow pace of structural reforms aimed at economic diversification. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.7% in 2021.

Nigeria Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)174181186191196
GDP per capita (USD)3,2712,6992,1551,9512,134
GDP (USD bn)569489401372418
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.22.8-1.60.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)13.4-1.3-4.8-3.09.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.0-3.4-9.40.9-4.8
Unemployment Rate4.45.36.26.06.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-3.5-4.0-5.4-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.520.323.425.327.3
Money (annual variation in %)20.65.917.82.312.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.09.618.615.411.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.19.015.716.512.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)167.5196.5304.5305.5306.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.0011.0014.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)156.5192.6253.2305.3305.6
Current Account (% of GDP)0.2-3.20.72.81.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.3-15.42.710.45.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.0-6.4-0.513.122.3
Exports (USD billion)82.645.934.745.863.1
Imports (USD billion)61.652.335.232.740.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.2-44.4-24.432.037.7
Imports (annual variation in %)19.9-15.0-32.7-7.324.7
International Reserves (USD)34.529.125.838.843.1
External Debt (% of GDP)1.72.22.85.16.0

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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