Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 3, 2020

Economic growth accelerated to a three-year high in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a surge in exports—due to the state-owned Johan Sverdrup oilfield coming online in October. That being said, fixed investment eased, while private consumption flatlined in Q4. This follows a soft Q3 and likely suggests the Norges Bank’s two policy rate increases in 2019 are cooling domestic demand. Turning to the first quarter of this year, the Johan Sverdrup continues to ramp up production levels, which should support the external sector. However, depressed oil and gas prices due to the coronavirus could weigh on oil investment. Moreover, retail sales declined sharply in January in year-on-year terms, despite solid labor and credit dynamics, while business confidence hit an over three-year low in Q4 due to weaker output levels and production expectations for Q1.

Norway Economic Growth

Growth is expected to accelerate this year as strong labor market fundamentals and investment in the Balder X offshore oilfield project support domestic demand, while greater output from the Johan Sverdrup oil platform should propel the energy sector. Nonetheless, a tight monetary stance and weak growth in the Eurozone will likely keep momentum in check. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2021. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 1.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.7% in 2021.

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Norway Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.58-0.65 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate8.78-0.38 %Jan 01

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