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Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

Economic growth appears to have stabilized in the first quarter of 2020 after accelerating in the final quarter of last year. Strong government spending and a low base effect should support growth, while the manufacturing PMI edged up in January. However, the economy has faced several disruptions in Q1, particularly the eruption of the Taal Volcano and Typhoon Tisoy in December, which have likely hampered economic activity and disrupted supply chains. Exacerbating matters, the coronavirus outbreak is likely denting tourism due to a travel ban on visitors from mainland China, while shutdowns and delays in China are expected to drag on demand for Filipino goods. Remittances from overseas workers could also come under pressure in Q1 due to the outbreak. On 11 February, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Philippines’ BBB credit rating and upgraded the outlook to positive due to progress on fiscal reform and solid macroeconomic fundamentals.

Philippines Economic Growth

Strong fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy should propel the economy forward this year. The public infrastructure program should drive investment and construction, while consumer spending will also support growth. However, U.S.-China trade negotiations and the severity of the coronavirus are important factors for the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 6.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2021.

Philippines Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)99.9102103105107
GDP per capita (USD)2,8492,8812,9532,9893,104
GDP (USD bn)285293305314331
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.16.16.96.76.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.66.37.15.95.6
Investment (annual variation in %)7.216.926.19.412.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)8.35.77.18.44.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.7-57.310249.012.4
Unemployment Rate6.86.35.55.75.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.9-2.4-2.2-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.444.742.142.141.8
Money (annual variation in %)10.59.113.311.68.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.90.72.22.95.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.60.71.32.95.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.7-6.7-4.8-0.90.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.003.003.004.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)22.8-3.9-1.625.1-12.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.7946.9349.6050.0152.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.4045.5347.5050.4052.67
Current Account (% of GDP)3.82.5-0.4-0.7-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)10.87.3-1.2-2.1-8.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.3-12.2-26.7-27.4-43.5
Exports (USD billion)62.158.857.468.769.3
Imports (USD billion)65.471.184.196.1113
Exports (annual variation in %)9.5-5.3-2.419.70.9
Imports (annual variation in %)4.88.718.414.217.4
International Reserves (USD)79.580.780.781.679.2
External Debt (% of GDP)27.326.524.523.323.9

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Philippines Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.44-4.11 %Dec 27
Exchange Rate50.660.02 %Jan 01

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