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Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

A preliminary estimate revealed that GDP growth picked up noticeably in Q4 2019, beating market expectations. Household consumption appears to have spearheaded the expansion, as reflected by robust retail sales growth in the quarter. Turning to 2020, economic sentiment edged up in January–February from Q4 on the back of strengthening confidence in the trade and construction sectors, alluding to sustained healthy business conditions. Meanwhile, on 26 February, President Klaus Iohannis appointed acting Finance Minister Florin Citu as prime minister-delegate to try to form a government, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the re-nomination of toppled Ludovic Orban as prime minister created a conflict of interest. In other news, on 5 March the European Commission recommended EU finance ministers to open an excessive deficit procedure against the country as it exceeded the 3.0% fiscal deficit threshold last year. The recommendation calls for reducing the budget shortfall below 3.0% by 2022 at the latest, placing structural funds at risk if authorities fail to comply.

Romania Economic Growth

Although the economy is expected to slow this year, robust consumer spending—propped up by a tight job market—should nevertheless underpin a healthy pace of expansion. Continued absorption of EU structural funds should also support investment activity. That said, political uncertainty and the country’s sizeable twin deficits pose key risks to the outlook. Our analysts see growth at 3.2% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2021.

Romania Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)20.019.919.819.619.5
GDP per capita (EUR)7,5398,0748,6329,54510,472
GDP (EUR bn)150160171188204
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.43.94.87.14.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.25.88.410.07.2
Investment (annual variation in %)3.37.20.03.5-1.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.22.81.87.83.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.49.512.410.85.5
Unemployment Rate6.86.85.94.94.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.6-2.6-2.6-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.237.837.335.135.0
Money (annual variation in %)8.49.49.811.58.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.8-0.9-0.53.33.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.4-0.4-1.11.14.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.751.751.751.752.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.1-1.11.29.4-4.8
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.484.524.544.664.66
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.444.444.494.574.65
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-1.2-2.0-3.4-4.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.0-2.0-3.6-6.0-9.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.6-7.8-9.3-12.2-14.8
Exports (EUR billion)46.849.152.257.261.9
Imports (EUR billion)53.456.961.569.476.7
Exports (annual variation in %)6.64.96.39.68.2
Imports (annual variation in %)7.46.68.112.810.5
International Reserves (EUR)32.232.234.233.533.1
External Debt (% of GDP)63.059.055.352.048.8

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Romania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.490.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate4.26-0.34 %Dec 31

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