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Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 10, 2020

The economy grew a meager 0.3% in 2019 according to a preliminary figure, down from 2018’s 2.4% expansion. The oil sector contracted at the sharpest pace in a decade, whereas the non-oil sector accelerated robustly—due to strong gains from the finance and retail trade sectors. Turning to the first quarter of this year, the economy likely remains fragile. Oil production remained hamstrung in January, while the non-oil private sector PMI fell to a 22-month low in February, with the coronavirus fallout likely weighing heavily on manufacturing and tourism. In other news, on 6 March OPEC+ was unable to agree on a proposal for deeper and extended production cuts, due to lack of support from Russia, which has led to an all-out price war in recent days. In response, Saudi Arabia started discounting oil contracts by USD 6–8 per barrel and is also expected to ramp up production above the 10 million barrels per day mark next month.

Saudi Arabia Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen accelerating this year, due to a recovery in oil production. Moreover, growth in non-oil activities should remain upbeat, but a more restrictive budget and the coronavirus will likely slow dynamics. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2021, the panel sees growth at 2.1%.

Saudi Arabia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)30.831.131.832.633.4
GDP per capita (USD)24,57721,06320,28421,11323,536
GDP (USD bn)756654645689786
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.11.7-0.72.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.53.7-14.00.7-3.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.15.02.3-2.42.7
Unemployment Rate5.95.75.65.96.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-15.8-12.9-9.2-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)1.65.813.117.219.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.62.50.80.32.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.91.31.0-1.12.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.22.1-0.82.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.002.003.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.753.753.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.753.753.753.753.75
Current Account (% of GDP)9.8-8.7-3.71.59.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)73.7-56.7-23.810.570.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)18444.355.898.5169
Exports (USD billion)342204184222294
Imports (USD billion)158159128123126
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.9-40.6-9.820.932.7
Imports (annual variation in %)3.30.5-19.8-3.51.8
International Reserves (USD)732616536496496
External Debt (% of GDP)13.113.824.627.728.1

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Saudi Arabia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.21.00 %Jan 07

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