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Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

GDP strengthened more than previously estimated in Q4 thanks to robust growth in the services and construction sectors. On the other hand, the downturn in the manufacturing sector intensified on a lingering global tech slump and protracted trade tensions. Moreover, GDP growth for the year as a whole fell to a one-decade low. Early 2020 data, meanwhile, sent mixed signals. In January, the manufacturing PMI rose to a nine-month high, while the electronics PMI returned to expansionary territory for the first time in 15 months. However, non-oil domestic exports contracted in the same month on the back of nosediving electronics exports, and the coronavirus outbreak will likely weigh on the external and manufacturing sectors in the months ahead. In the political arena, on 18 February the government presented an expansionary budget with the largest fiscal shortfall in a decade to boost the ailing economy.

Singapore Economic Growth

The economy should firm this year on the back of a reviving manufacturing sector and fiscal stimulus. Domestic demand, moreover, should remain resilient on recovering fixed investment. Yet the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid a still-uncertain external backdrop, due to the coronavirus and lingering trade tensions. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 1.0% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and 2.2% in 2021.

Singapore Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)5.55.55.65.65.6
GDP per capita (USD)57,66955,61556,78860,72265,953
GDP (USD bn)315308318341372
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.93.03.24.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.65.23.23.04.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.22.01.54.2-3.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)2.7-5.13.710.47.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.34.61.41.3-1.2
Unemployment Rate2.01.92.12.22.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-1.01.42.30.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)97.199.5105106109
Money (annual variation in %)3.31.58.03.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.1-0.60.20.40.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.0-0.5-0.50.60.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.3-15.3-6.97.06.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.380.88-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)6.2-14.3-0.118.1-9.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.331.421.451.341.36
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.271.371.381.381.35
Current Account (% of GDP)17.918.717.716.317.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)56.557.656.255.664.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)86.792.690.897.4104
Exports (USD billion)451396375414460
Imports (USD billion)364304284317356
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-12.0-5.510.511.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.1-16.5-6.611.612.6
International Reserves (USD)257248247280288
External Debt (% of GDP)426416413431404

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Singapore Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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