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South Africa Economic Forecast

South Africa Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

The economy likely fell into technical recession in the fourth quarter of last year. Industrial production doubled its pace of contraction in Q4, as unprecedented rolling blackouts hampered mining and manufacturing activities. Moreover, supply shocks likely weighed on capital spending, while slower retail sales in Q4 hint that household spending did not go unscathed. Turning to the first quarter of this year, the economy’s woes likely persisted: In addition to souring business confidence in January, power outages are now expected to continue for the next 18 months following Eskom’s announcement on 29 January of planned maintenance at its struggling coal power plants. In response, on 13 February President Ramaphosa pledged to cut red tape in order to encourage private-led energy projects.

South Africa Economic Growth

The economy is expected to expand at a slighly faster pace this year. Household spending is seen picking up and lower interest rates will likely boost fixed investment. A rebound in exports should also support growth. However, fiscal challenges remain high and could worsen if Moody’s downgrades the country’s last investment-level credit rating in March. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 0.9% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2021.

South Africa Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)53.955.456.357.157.9
GDP per capita (USD)6,6356,0225,2916,2206,137
GDP (USD bn)358317297350368
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.81.20.41.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.90.62.11.8
Investment (annual variation in %)0.72.5-3.51.0-1.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.10.00.7-0.5-  
Unemployment Rate25.125.426.727.527.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-3.7-3.6-4.0-4.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.049.351.553.056.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.35.36.74.74.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.14.66.35.34.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.756.257.006.756.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.5715.5013.6812.3814.39
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.8512.7814.7013.3113.25
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.1-4.6-2.9-2.5-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.1-15.4-8.6-8.9-12.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.9-3.72.24.81.7
Exports (USD billion)94.981.977.086.694.1
Imports (USD billion)10285.574.881.892.3
Exports (annual variation in %)1.7-13.2-5.912.58.6
Imports (annual variation in %)1.3-14.1-12.59.412.8
International Reserves (USD)44.341.842.745.346.4
External Debt (% of GDP)40.637.248.048.848.5

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South Africa Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.260.29 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate13.98-0.21 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.1-0.44 %Jan 06

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