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Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址March 3, 2020

Available data hints at slowing momentum at the turn of 2020, after economic growth accelerated and beat expectations in the final quarter of last year on an upbeat external sector. The composite PMI slipped in January amid softer services activity growth, with the sector’s PMI falling to an over six-year low as political uncertainty weighed on new business and confidence. Moreover, employment growth eased sharply in the same month, which, coupled with consumers turning more pessimistic from Q4, suggests persistent weakness in private consumption. Meanwhile, the new minority coalition government pushed its first major legislation through Parliament on 27 February, which lays out new fiscal deficit targets for 2020–2023 and thus opens up a process to approve its 2020 budget. This year’s target was set at 1.8% of GDP, smaller than last year’s estimated 2.0% but larger than what was agreed upon with European authorities two years ago.

Spain Economic Growth

Growth is projected to ebb this year. That said, healthy household spending, supported by rising real disposable incomes, should buffer the slowdown. Increased competition to the key tourism industry; lingering global trade tensions; slowing Eurozone demand; and potential negative spillovers from the coronavirus outbreak pose major external risks ahead. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% again in 2021.

Spain Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)46.546.446.446.446.4
GDP per capita (EUR)22,34023,21924,00625,03625,882
GDP (EUR bn)1,0381,0781,1141,1621,202
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.43.83.02.92.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.04.12.13.12.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.52.92.63.01.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.74.92.45.95.3
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.34.35.45.62.2
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)6.65.12.66.63.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.23.21.93.20.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.94.23.90.70.8
Unemployment Rate24.422.119.617.215.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.0-5.2-4.3-3.0-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)10099.399.298.697.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-1.1-0.11.41.21.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.2-0.6-0.32.01.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-2.1-3.14.43.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)3.7-7.2-2.07.4-15.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.12.03.22.71.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)11.221.835.431.123.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-24.5-24.2-18.8-24.7-33.8

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Spain Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.465.62 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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