Taiwan Economic Outlook
bet360备用网址February 25, 2020Economic activity picked up in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to revised GDP data, placing annual growth for the year at a similar level to that recorded in 2018. Soaring fixed investment drove the quarterly acceleration, as the government’s pro-growth policies and trade diversion from China spurred a reshoring of capital by domestic companies. However, consumption metrics were less positive in Q4 as a marked decrease in government spending growth more than offset a marginal acceleration in private consumption. Turning to the first quarter of this year, activity looks likely to be severely hampered by the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, with Taiwan particularly vulnerable due to its intertwined supply chains and dependence on Chinese tourism and exports. This bodes ill for the manufacturing industry in the first months of year, despite the PMI recently climbing to a 17-month high in January.
Taiwan Economic GrowthThis year, economic activity is likely to slow as capital inflows from overseas return to more sustainable levels and higher inflation eats into private spending growth. The extent of the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the Taiwanese economy and tense cross-strait relations with China pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2021.
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Taiwan Economic News
March 9, 2020
Merchandise exports expanded 24.9% in annual terms in February, contrasting January’s 7.5 contraction.
March 6, 2020
Consumer prices decreased 1.08% in February compared with the previous month, contrasting January’s revised 0.61% increase (previously reported: +0.59%).
March 2, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), reported by IHS Markit, fell to 49.9 in February from 51.8 in January.
February 24, 2020
bet360备用网址Industrial output decreased 1.5% in January compared to the same month a year earlier, contrasting the revised 6.3% increase recorded in December (previously reported: +6.0% year-on-year). The contraction in January was broad-based, but primarily driven by a reduction in output in the manufacturing sector, which represents more than 90% of total industrial production.
February 12, 2020
bet360备用网址The economy expanded 3.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, according to a second GDP release.