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Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

bet360备用网址February 25, 2020

Economic activity picked up in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to revised GDP data, placing annual growth for the year at a similar level to that recorded in 2018. Soaring fixed investment drove the quarterly acceleration, as the government’s pro-growth policies and trade diversion from China spurred a reshoring of capital by domestic companies. However, consumption metrics were less positive in Q4 as a marked decrease in government spending growth more than offset a marginal acceleration in private consumption. Turning to the first quarter of this year, activity looks likely to be severely hampered by the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, with Taiwan particularly vulnerable due to its intertwined supply chains and dependence on Chinese tourism and exports. This bodes ill for the manufacturing industry in the first months of year, despite the PMI recently climbing to a 17-month high in January.

Taiwan Economic Growth

This year, economic activity is likely to slow as capital inflows from overseas return to more sustainable levels and higher inflation eats into private spending growth. The extent of the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the Taiwanese economy and tense cross-strait relations with China pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2021.

Taiwan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)23.423.523.523.623.6
GDP per capita (USD)22,71622,94123,16125,15425,750
GDP (USD bn)532539545593607
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.52.23.32.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.42.92.62.72.0
Investment (annual variation in %)2.12.73.4-0.33.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.4-1.32.05.03.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.8-1.01.10.92.2
Unemployment Rate4.03.83.93.83.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.80.1-0.3-0.10.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.836.636.235.535.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.15.83.63.62.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.60.11.71.2-0.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.2-0.31.40.61.4
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-8.9-3.00.93.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.631.381.381.38
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.1-10.411.015.0-8.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)31.6332.8332.4529.6730.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)30.3131.7632.2430.4230.15
Current Account (% of GDP)11.413.513.114.011.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)60.472.871.383.170.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)38.248.150.058.349.2
Exports (USD billion)320284279315334
Imports (USD billion)282236229257285
Exports (annual variation in %)2.8-11.0-1.813.05.9
Imports (annual variation in %)1.4-15.9-3.012.210.7
International Reserves (USD)419426434452462
External Debt (% of GDP)33.429.531.630.731.5

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Taiwan Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.691.28 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate29.910.07 %Jan 01

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