Thailand Economic Outlook
February 25, 2020The economy weakened, with GDP growing at the softest pace in over five years in the final quarter of last year on a contraction in domestic demand as government expenditure fell, likely owing to the delayed passage of the government’s budget. Furthermore, exports of goods and services fell notably in the quarter amid a stronger downturn in the manufacturing sector, while the agricultural sector contracted at the steepest rate in eight quarters. Turning to this year, economic data remains limited but the manufacturing sector’s PMI dipped back into contractionary territory, suggesting business conditions worsened from the prior month. In mid-February, however, Parliament finally voted in favor of the government’s 2020 budget. Coupled with recently announced tax breaks and soft loans, this should buttress domestic demand and alleviate the damage inflicted by the coronavirus.
Thailand Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected remain broadly stable on the back of fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and a recovery of the external sector. However, the balance of risks is skewed to the downside amid lingering external headwinds, with protracted Sino-American tensions, the novel coronavirus outbreak and a strong currency likely weighing on exports and tourism. Our panel projects the economy to expand 2.3% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 3.3% in 2021.
Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Economic News
March 5, 2020
Thai consumer prices fell 0.08% month-on-month in February, contrasting the 0.16% increase in January.
February 27, 2020
bet360备用网址Manufacturing output dropped 4.6% year-on-year in January, down from the 4.4% contraction in the prior month and marking the ninth consecutive month of falling production.
February 24, 2020
Thai exports returned to growth in the new year, with exports rising 3.3% year-on-year in January (December: -1.3% year-on-year) on the back of increases in outbound shipments of precious stones and jewelry; rubber products; refine fuels; and machinery.
February 17, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.16% month-on-month in January, up from December’s 0.01% rise.
February 17, 2020
The economy grew at a five-year low of 1.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, below market expectations of 2.1%, as U.S.-China trade tensions, soft domestic demand, a delayed government budget and drought all took their toll.