Ukraine Economic Outlook
March 10, 2020A preliminary estimate revealed the economy expanded at the slowest pace in nearly four years in Q4 2019. Although a comprehensive release is not yet available, a sizeable downturn in industrial production appeared to be largely behind the slowdown. The record appreciation of the hryvnia in Q4 stifled competitiveness in international markets, against the backdrop of cooling global activity. In addition, agricultural output seemingly weighed on growth in Q4 amid ahead-of-scheduled harvest dates for cereals and other crops due to warm weather. Turning to the first quarter of this year, economic activity likely remained stuck in a lower gear, as the coronavirus outbreak hampers world trade and discourages investment. Meanwhile, in politics, President Volodymyr Zelensky reshuffled most of his cabinet on 4 March, as disappointing economic results hampered his approval ratings. Political turmoil could delay a vital IMF deal expected for H1 of this year.
Ukraine Economic GrowthThe economy is seen sustaining a solid rate of expansion this year. Fixed investment is seen expanding at a solid pace on the back of cheaper financing conditions, while a tightening labor market should shore up household spending. However, backtracking on the reform agenda may put IMF support at risk this year, ahead of hefty debt repayments. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 3.2% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen rising to 3.6%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
March 12, 2020
bet360备用网址At its 10 March, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to cut the key policy rate to 10.00% from 11.00%, marking the sixth consecutive cut.
March 9, 2020
bet360备用网址On 4 March, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced most of his cabinet, including the prime minister, with more established officials in an attempt to speed up the pace of reform and boost his falling approval ratings.
February 28, 2020
bet360备用网址Industrial production fell 5.1% over the same month last year in January, up from December’s 7.7% drop.
February 14, 2020
GDP growth fell to 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) in the fourth quarter of last year (Q3: +4.1% yoy), marking the slowest expansion since Q1 2016, according to a preliminary estimate by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute.
February 13, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, contrasting December’s 0.2% fall.