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Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

A preliminary estimate revealed the economy expanded at the slowest pace in nearly four years in Q4 2019. Although a comprehensive release is not yet available, a sizeable downturn in industrial production appeared to be largely behind the slowdown. The record appreciation of the hryvnia in Q4 stifled competitiveness in international markets, against the backdrop of cooling global activity. In addition, agricultural output seemingly weighed on growth in Q4 amid ahead-of-scheduled harvest dates for cereals and other crops due to warm weather. Turning to the first quarter of this year, economic activity likely remained stuck in a lower gear, as the coronavirus outbreak hampers world trade and discourages investment. Meanwhile, in politics, President Volodymyr Zelensky reshuffled most of his cabinet on 4 March, as disappointing economic results hampered his approval ratings. Political turmoil could delay a vital IMF deal expected for H1 of this year.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The economy is seen sustaining a solid rate of expansion this year. Fixed investment is seen expanding at a solid pace on the back of cheaper financing conditions, while a tightening labor market should shore up household spending. However, backtracking on the reform agenda may put IMF support at risk this year, ahead of hefty debt repayments. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 3.2% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen rising to 3.6%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)42.842.642.442.242.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,0582,0552,1752,6863,118
GDP (USD bn)13187.592.3113131
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.6-9.82.42.53.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.3-19.82.79.58.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-24.0-9.220.416.114.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-10.1-13.02.80.41.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.8-21.04.48.65.6
Unemployment Rate10.69.19.39.58.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.479.180.971.860.9
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)24.943.312.413.79.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.148.514.914.511.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)14.0022.0014.0014.5018.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)28.8-37.810.218.877.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)15.8224.0327.1028.1627.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12.0221.9525.5626.6027.19
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.51.8-1.5-2.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.61.6-1.3-2.4-4.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7
Exports (USD billion)50.635.433.639.743.3
Imports (USD billion)57.738.940.549.456.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.5-29.9-5.318.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-29.0-32.64.221.913.6
International Reserves (USD)7.513.315.518.820.8
External Debt (% of GDP)95.613512210287.5

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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