UK Economic Forecast
March 3, 2020The economy flatlined in the final quarter of 2019 according to recent data, amid a contraction in fixed investment and soft private consumption. In contrast, the external sector contributed strongly to growth, although this was likely due in part to temporary factors flattering exports. Turning to 2020, available indicators suggest a stronger start to the year. Both the manufacturing and services PMIs averaged notably higher in January–February compared to Q4, amid a reduction in political uncertainty following the elections, while retail sales rebounded in January. However, PMI survey respondents highlighted that the COVID-19 outbreak had dampened demand from Asia, and the virus will likely continue weighing on the external sector in the months ahead. In politics, the UK and EU began formal trade talks on 2 March. The talks are set to prove difficult, with areas such as fishing rights and the UK’s ability to diverge from EU regulations likely to be particular sticking points.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthGrowth should be modest this year. While a more expansionary fiscal stance should support activity, uncertainty over the future UK-EU trading relationship will cap business investment, while the coronavirus outbreak will weigh on exports. A possible unravelling of trade negotiations with the EU and a worsening of the viral outbreak pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth of 1.0% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2021.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.83||-3.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
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United Kingdom Economic News
February 28, 2020
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, down from January’s 0.5% increase.
February 28, 2020
bet360备用网址The GfK consumer confidence indicator registered minus 7 in February, up from minus 9 in January and marking an over one-year high.
United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI rises in February; services PMI dips but remains in positive territory
February 21, 2020
bet360备用网址The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from a revised 53.9 in January (previously reported: 52.9) to 53.3 in February, but remained above the threshold that separates expansion from contraction in activity.
February 19, 2020
bet360备用网址Consumer prices declined 0.3% month-on-month in January, following December’s flat reading.
February 18, 2020
bet360备用网址The unemployment rate was stable at 3.8% in the October–December period, a multi-decade low.