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Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy continued to languish in the final quarter of last year, although seemed to contract at a less severe rate. Oil production appeared to bottom out in Q4 after having fallen by more than 40% since the start of 2019 as U.S. sanctions and power outages choked the vital industry. In an attempt to revive the sector, the government indicated that it intends to offer majority shares and control of its oil industry to foreign corporations. In late January, officials held talks with Repsol, Eni and Rosneft to shape a deal which would grant government-owned oil property and restructure some of PDVSA’s debt in exchange for assets. Meanwhile, the increasing dollarization of the economy has reportedly somewhat stabilized prices, incentivized private sector activity and slowed emigration, with authorities introducing a VAT on U.S. dollar transactions to tap into new sources of government revenue.

Venezuela Economic Growth

The economy is likely to shrink for the seventh year running in 2020, although the rate of contraction should ease as softer government regulation supports household spending. Moreover, the privatization of oil assets should shore up fixed investment, while oil production looks set to stabilize at current levels. Additional U.S. sanctions pose downside risks to the outlook. As it stands, the LatinFocus Consensus projects the economy to contract 10.9% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the panel sees GDP shrinking 1.8%.

Venezuela Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)30.230.630.730.328.9
GDP per capita (USD)7,03010,5689,0924,7553,411
GDP (USD bn)21232427914498.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.9-6.2-17.0-15.7-19.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-8.8-11.8-26.3-21.1-18.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.4-8.9-19.4-16.2-20.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-16.9-20.4-45.1-45.3-37.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-7.2-5.4-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.06.87.37.26.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.9-15.6-16.8-18.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)28.574.792.3120-  
Money (annual variation in %)64.01011591,12163,257
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)68.5181274863130,060
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)62.212225543865,374
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.8414.5914.6214.7715.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)41.02781173,884126,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.306.3010.0010.00638.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.306.309.2910.0081.94
Current Account (% of GDP)1.7-5.6-0.46.18.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.9-16.1-3.98.78.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)27.43.911.022.020.9
Exports (USD billion)74.737.227.434.033.7
Imports (USD billion)47.333.316.412.012.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.9-50.1-26.424.2-1.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.4-29.5-50.9-26.66.5
International Reserves (USD)22.116.411.09.78.8
External Debt (% of GDP)56.738.645.778.7113

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate248,8320.0 %Aug 17

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